LONDON — Students continued their streak of monthly strikes around the world today.

Since the last strike, Canada and the pope declared a climate emergency, and the UK announced a citizens assembly on climate action.

In London, YouthStrike4Climate held a vibrant banner saying “Empower The Future”:

The scene in Aachen, Germany was impressive with an estimated turnout of 40,000:

Despite the fact that governments are beginning to set legally binding net zero targets, such as that in the UK, what is still missing is the legally binding policy necessary to reach their net zero targets. The youth are not going to relent until real progress is made in reducing emissions. There is no sign of this happening yet as global emissions continue to rise.

The next youth strike is on the 19th of July. A global general stike is set to take place on September 20th.

OTTAWA — The House of Commons voted to declare a climate emergency on Monday night by 186-63 votes. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was then approved the following day.

Catherine McKenna, the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, said “Canada has added its voice to a growing movement of governments that are declaring climate change an emergency and affirming that Canada is working to meet its international commitments.”

However, the climate emergency declaration is non-binding and does not require action to be taken. It is similar to the declaration made by the UK last month.

The cities of Vancouver, Kingston and Ottawa have also made their own climate emergency declarations, with varied policy to match.

The Trans Mountain pipeline will pump 590,000 barrels of tar sands oil from Alberta to British Columbia. According to a government report, the producing and processing of the tar sands petroleum will emit 13-15 megatons of carbon per year, the equivilent of adding 212,000 new cars to the road every year. Burning it will emit even more pollution.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to justify the decision saying “We need to create wealth today so we can invest in the future… This project has the potential to create thousands of solid middle class jobs for Canadians.”

The Rainforest Action Network made the following statement: “What stunning hypocrisy for Prime Minister Trudeau to approve a massive tar sands oil pipeline the day after his government declared a climate emergency and reaffirmed its commitment to the Paris Agreement. This is like declaring war on cancer and then announcing a campaign to promote smoking. But this is far from a done deal. First Nations and Canadian environmentalists will continue to fight this project and their international allies will support them in whatever way they can.”

Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Jonathan Wilkinson, said: “We remain fully committed to achieving the Paris targets. The upstream emissions associated with this project are captured in Canada’s climate plan, so there’s no inconsistency with the approval of this project and achieving what we’re committed to do.”

There is also ongoing resistance by the conservative government to the carbon tax implemented by the liberals, with misleading claims made on social media that avoid mentioning the tax rebate. According to a report, the carbon taxes may need to be even higher to meet the Paris Agreement.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer vowed to scrap the carbon tax and put a cap on large emitters instead if elected, claiming that “the answer lies in technology”.

However it is done, Canada will need to step up its climate action if it is to meet the more ambitious Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees. The window of opportunity is becoming increasingly narrow as global emissions rise and new research emerges. Permafrost is melting 70 years earlier than expected in Arctic Canada.

Update: Canada has proposed a net zero by 2050 target with the Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Act brought forward by liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.

The quotes in this article are from Global News, Washington Post, Vancouver Sun, and CTV News.

LONDON — The UK is set to become the first G7 country to legislate for net zero emissions by 2050. The minimum 100% reduction target will be written into law on Wednesday through an amendment to the Climate Change Act 2008, which previously targeted an 80% reduction by 2050.

Theresa May is signing off new policy in the time before her departure as prime minister: “This country led the world in innovation during the Industrial Revolution, and now we must lead the world to a cleaner, greener form of growth.”

The move follows advice provided by the UK’s climate change advisory board The Committee on Climate Change (CCC).

The recent activism and declaration of a climate emergency on May 1st are very likely to have influenced the decision, as it seems to be in contrast to the conservative’s controversial record on the issue, such as measures against wind and solar power, and a third runway at Heathrow Airport.

Earlier in the week, the government dismissed chancellor Philip Hammond’s claim that the target would cost £1tn and result in spending cuts. It said the cost would “fall within our existing spending plans”.

The chancellor did not factor in the cost of not acting on climate change. Furthermore, it is expected to create many new jobs, improve energy security, result in cleaner air, and make the UK an even more attractive place to live, work, and invest.

The UK’s Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Greg Clark said: “Almost 400,000 people are already employed in the low-carbon sector and its supply chains across the country. Through our modern Industrial Strategy we’re investing in clean growth to ensure we reap the rewards and create two million high quality jobs by 2030.”

There will be a review in 5 years time so that the UK does not “face unfair competition”. The target already falls short of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and global targets are only expected to become increasingly ambitious, so it’s unclear why such a review would be needed.

The creative carbon accounting problem

The CCC released a statement and noted that the government “has not yet moved formally to include international aviation and shipping within the target”. Excluding aviation and shipping, the UK’s emissions have been falling, but including these sectors, emissions have been steadily on the rise. Failure to include aviation and shipping could undermine the reality of the net zero target.

Prior to the announcement, the Financial Times reported that the government was trying to “fiddle the figures”. MPs were planning to take 88 megatonnes of surplus emissions reductions made between 2008-2012 and bring them forward into the 2023-2027 period.

International carbon credits have been kept “as an option”, but the government does not “intend” to use them, according to the acting energy minister Chris Skidmore. This would allow the UK to pay to offset its emissions abroad; against the advice of the CCC.

Is net zero by 2050 enough?

The target meets the IPCC’s recommendation of net zero emissions by 2050, however, this is only for a 50%-66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

The UK as a developed nation is capable of achieving a far more ambitious target.

Every country on the planet must at least commit to net zero by 2050, but the developing world continues to suffer from energy poverty, and therefore needs to be given some room for growth.

Currently, around 1 billion people worldwide still don’t have access to electricity. In India, up to 270 million people don’t have access to electricity.

Furthermore, as new research emerges [Bamber, J, et al. 2019], it is becoming clear that 2050 as a target for net zero is far too conservative. Research has shown that the 1.5°C limit could be breached as soon as 2030.

It is still possible that the 2050 target could be brought forward. Mass activism is sure to continue until the target shifts to at least 2030. The effects of climate change will also become increasingly dire. The concern is that governments may not fully understand the extent of the problem until disaster strikes, at which point it could be too late to act.

It remains to be seen whether today’s legislation will translate into effective policy, and whether the targets will actually be met. I advocate the use of Iterative Risk Management to ensure targets are met on a year-by-year basis: additional policy would be introduced each year to bring emissions in line with the overall target, this would prevent the build-up of an impossible surplus. Hitting targets in the short term would guaruntee that the long term targets are met, and there is no margin for error in context of the climate crisis.

Nevertheless, it’s a step in the right direction, and will be an important foundation for introducing the hard policy necessary to reach net zero. Even greater ambition is needed to bring the UK in line with the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5-2.0°C, especially as the world’s carbon budget becomes ever more scarce.